7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

{Hero total 3-bet range}
={value hands and 5-bet bluff hands} + {3-bet bluff hands}
={QQ+, AK, A5s, A4s}
+ 40% x {A9s-A6s,ATo-A8o,K9s-K6s,KJo-K9o,Q9s-Q6s,QJo-Q9o}

Even against a TAG CO raiser with a solid ~25% opening range, you can 3-bet almost 8% on the button and there isn’t anything he can do to exploit your loose 3-bets. And if he defends poorly, for example by not 4-bet-bluffing enough, or not being willing to use JJ/AQ as value hands, you can deviate from optimal play and attack him even harder. The first adjustment against a weak/passive CO raiser who folds a lot to 3-bets is to increase your fixed 3-bet bluff percentage for the candidate list. You might increase the bluff candidate 3-betting frequency from 40% to 60%. If Villain (and the blinds) doesn’t adjust to your exploitative, loose 3-betting, you’ll be printing money.

Hero’s 25% optimal raise/4-bet/call 5-bet-strategy in CO:

{Hero’s total CO range}
={22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,
A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo}
={value hands} + {4-bet bluff hands}
={JJ+, AQ+}
+ (15% 4-bet and 85% fold) x {the rest of the range}

Hero raises {22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,
A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo} =326 combos from CO. If hero gets 3-bet, hero 4-bets {JJ+, AQ+} for value, planning to call a 5-bet. Those times hero doesn’t have a value hand (e.g. 88, A9o, T9s, etc.), hero 4-bets 15% of the time, and the rest of the time folds. Using a random number generator from random.org to randomise 4-bet bluffs .

From aejones article:

Optimal 3-bet strategy against 15% optimal raising strategy in EP

Total 3-bet range
={value hands and 5-bet-bluff hands} + {3-bet bluff hands}
={KK+, A5s, A4s}
+ 20% x {A9s-A6s,ATo-A8o,K9s-K6s,KJo-K9o,Q9s-Q6s,QJo-Q9o}

Hero always 3-bets {KK+, A5s, A4s} and 5-bets all-in after a 4-bet. If he has one of the 152 combos from his candidate list for 3-bet bluffing, he uses a randomiser and 3-bet bluffs 20% of the time, and he folds to a 4-bet.

Don’t 3-bet QQ/AK for value against a ~15% opening range of a player who plays optimally against our 3-bets. We are not doing well against our opponents 5-Bet range and so rather than use as a 3-bet bluff and negate their value we flat.

Against such a player we use QQ/AK as flatting hands to enable us to pay a raised pot in position against a range against which we have good equity.

Hero 15% Raise  {22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo} =186 combos from EP.

If he gets 3-bet, she 4-bets {QQ+, AK} for value and calls a 5-bet with them. Those times hero doesn’t have a value hand, (e.g. hero has JJ, AJo, 76s, etc.), hero 4-bets 15% of the time as a bluff, and otherwise hero folds.

The percentage of value hands is then 34/186 =18%, while the effective percentage of bluff hands is 0.15 x (186 – 34)/186 =12%. The value/bluff ratio for her 4-bet range is 18/12 =60/40, which is optimal.

To randomize hero’s 4-bet bluffs and get the correct frequency apply a  15% 4-bet frequency for hero’s non-value hands by using a random number generator from random.org.

Read this interesting article whilst reviewing my ranges.

When facing a 3-bet OOP you really have only two choices folding or 4-betting. Defending by flatting and playing fit or fold poker you are going to be setting money alight and it is difficult to steal or outplay your opponent when OOP. 4-Bet size should be in 25-30BB range where pot would be 37.5 BB given 100BB stacks. This puts our opponent in a shove-or-fold situation. By betting a bit less than pot his 3-bet bluffs still fold and his 5-bets still shove so we save money on our 4-bet bluffs when he goes all in.

This is an excellent article on merging ranges by aejones. This is something you’ll need to do when moving up levels to be more GTO.

If you hold an ace blocker you significantly reduce the strength of your opponents range.

Combinations are as follows:

• 16 combinations of any non-pocket starting hand
• 12 combinations of any off suit hand
• 4 combinations of any suited hand
• 6 combinations of any pocket pair

Each pair has 6 combinations and each unpaired hand has 16 so if your opponents 3-bet calling range is JJ+  AK

Without blocker he has the following:

16 for AK, 6 for Jacks, Queens, Kings and Aces = 40 KK+ = 12/40 = 30%

With an ace blocker he has the following:

12 for AK, 6 for Jacks, Queens, Kings and 3 for Aces= 33 KK+ = 9/33 =27.3%

If  we assume Villain’s UTG opening range is 55+ AQ+ and his 3-bet calling range is JJ+ AK

Without a blocker

Opening hands = Pairs 10 x 6 plus 16 for AQ and AK = 92

Calling hands = 16 for AK, 6 for Jacks, Queens, Kings and Aces = 40

Percentage of  opening range that calls a 3-bet = 40/92 = 43.5%

Therefore villain calls 43.5 % and folds 56.5% when 3-bet

Opening hands if we have an ace blocker with A5s

We take away 3 possibilities each for AA and 55, and 4 possibilities each for AQ and AK. 92 – 14 = 78

Calling hands if we have an ace blocker with A5s

12 for AK, 6 for Jacks, Queens, Kings and  3 for Aces = 33 = 33/78= 42.3%

Therefore villain calls 42.3 % and folds 57.7% when 3-bet

Key here is that with an ace blocker we have reduced the calling hands of our opponent by 7/40 = 17.5%

We use blockers to 3-bet or 4-bet bluff where we will fold to a re-raise. The best hands for blockers contain aces or kings as these remove the villains high value Ace and King hands with which he may re-raise.

When bluffing with a hand that is likely to see a flop it can be a good idea to hold a hand without blockers  such as 87s as it will have more equity when called.  It will also have equity when you 5-bet over an opponent who 4-bet bluffs a lot, as it will have decent equity against a hands like AK.

I met Will Kassouf at the WPT Nottingham and had a chance to get his thoughts on a hand that troubled me whilst watching the WSOP coverage. He faced an all in and a call and with King  Five and no pair or draw and tanked. When challenged he told the table he had a decision to make as he had top pair, before eventually folding. I told Will that I had defended him to my German poker friends but found that hand was impossible to defend  him on. He still maintained that timing tells were important even when folding, but I was left unconvinced. He did say something interesting that he seriously considered folding the Kings as he liked Shaun Deeb’s mantra that you have to make one big fold per tournament. I like Doug Polk’s analysis as always,

I played with an annoyingly slow player on day one and was pleased to find that the turbo event in the morning of day 2, gave you 20 seconds to act  or your hand was dead. If you needed more time you had one time bank chip which afforded you an extra minute.

This chip led to two interesting hands, the first was on the table next to me where on the river a player with a pair of deuces hit a deuce for a full house and shoved all in over a river bet. “I think I’m going to call…” his opponent said before throwing his time bank chip on to the felt . This was mistaken as a call and the full house player exposed his hand, only to find that he had thrown the time bank chip in. The time bank player realising he was beat folded amidst much commotion.

We discussed it on our table only for an hour later the same event to happen. The player on my left when checked to on the river bet half pot for 17K and once again the time bank chip went in only for him to show his turned flush before realising his error. His opponent folded having got the maximum value from this time-bank chip.

I believe getting your opponent to talk can get you information, I remember Antonio Esfandiari  getting Daniel Negreanu to betray his hand in a table talk master class.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlxAQVTnwE0

I do believe Will’s speech play may betray him, this is an interesting article reviewing his speech play at the WSOP.

On YouTube watching a 3-Bet seminar from Andrew Seidman author of Easy Game and a coach at Deuces Cracked training site.

I’ve watched this video before but a long time ago, I need to review before the WPT to make sure I’m clear on my strategy and ranges. I enjoyed both his books Easy Game Volume 1 and Easy Game Volume 2. He now sells both on Amazon combined as an e-book Easy Game 3rd Edition but at £44 the price is pretty high, although what price good content? However as most good poker books come in at approx £25 I’d rather recommend Chris Moorman’s book or Alexander Fitzgerald’s.