7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

If you want to be a poker player study hard and apply what you have studied

I’m currently re-reading Oliver Improva Marx’s book “Solving the poker puzzle” but slowly I carry it around and catch a page on a train or bus. If you want to be good put the hours in for every 3 hrs playing have one hour of study. Get to be the best you can be as fast as you can and then play. Don’t do a million hands making the same mistake.

I played a hand with Pak_xxx he raised the cutoff and I re-raised from the button with Q10 the flop came KJ7 monotone and I shoved pot size with my straight draw to put him all in and he called with 33. I thought it was a bad call but then I realised I’m never shoving anything there but air and draws and my play was bad. I told him in chat he was only beating bluffs but he knew that and realised that was mainly what I had. If I’d bet a 3rd pot I’m sure he’d have folded….

but if you have a system  and you lose you still have your system.

This is Phil Gordon’s script and it’s pretty damn good

In an effort to simplify my decisions, every single time it’s my turn to act, I try to run through the same script in my head:

Are my opponents playing conservatively? Aggressively? Tentatively?

What are some of the hands my opponents are likely to hold?

What do my opponents think I have?

Once I have the answer to the first question, and feel confident about my range of answers for the second and third questions, I move on to the most important question:

Should I bet or raise?

If I think I have the best hand, I nearly always answer “Yes” and I bet or raise.

If I think I can force weak opponents out of the pot with this bet or with future bets, I nearly always answer “Yes” and I bet or raise.

If I don’t think betting or raising is the right decision, I move on to the last question:

Should I check (or fold)?

If I think I have the worst hand, I nearly always answer “Yes” and I check or fold.

If I think my opponents are strong, I nearly always answer “Yes” and check or fold.

After a careful analysis, if I’m not sure if I should raise and I’m not sure I should fold, I feel confident that calling a bet (or checking) is correct.

I find that even in straight-forward and obvious situations, by running through the script I often find opportunities that other players might miss.

And by asking the “raise” question before the “fold” and “call” question, I ensure that I am playing aggressive, winning poker.

Try using this script next time you sit down at the table, and see if simplifying your inner dialog forces your opponents into making more complicated decisions.

Phil Gordon

Turned the nut flush bet half pot and got raised. I thought he may be on a draw and just called to keep his bluffs in, the river brought as second queen I checked he bet and I called. He would have raised if  he had a set on the flop, I should have known I was good and re-raised in this spot I left value on the table.

In hindsight when I get re-raised on the flush  completing turn, what can he have? A king high flush draw would call a re-raise, a made flush would call or perhaps even raise. I think there are perhaps more Villain errors to be made by re-raising…I need to sleep on it…

Raise of 9K  by big stack, button re-raises to 22K and I cold 4 bet  to 42K from big blind with QQ. Flop J 10 4 and I lead for 49K in to 100K  pot and the button shoves all in for his last 110K. I should never have raised the flop his range was Aces, Kings Jacks, Tens and  AK I lose to all of them except  AK…ridiculous lead out and awful call. Agghhhhhh…. just so bad… when will I learn to be the robot? The cold calculating machine that would never had bet in such an awful spot. I should have checked and maybe called one street at best….don’t be a donkey in high value tournaments…Perhaps I should have raised more would 49K have been better and fold to his 5 bet shove? Difficult spot will check this one tomorrow…OK so you can’t  just cold 4bet and fold QQ

If you 4bet QQ then you should call it off. Just to prove my point, let’s run the numbers.

You’ll be calling 408bb into a total pot of 67.5BB, meaning you need ~59% equity to breakeven on a call (40/ 67.5)

vs. the narrowest of ranges (QQ+, AKo, AKs) your hand has 40.2% equity, which means it’s +EV to call off once you 4bet.

“Good news is I never got bluffed…”

Just busted out of a 22$ guy shoved river and I called, no cold hard analysis just a call….learn to get emotion out of the decision. It is a maths exam there is no room for ego in this game….be like a robot…

Flop has one over card, a possible straight, nearly every pair under mine has hit a set and two pair options are obvious.

Cut-off raises to 3,200 I call with 19 BB 32,000 behind on the button with JJ and the BB completes. With a cut-off open this is a shove but with position I want to play it as a pair of 88s and see the flop. Need to check if this is a mistake, If I raise and get shoved on I’m rarely good and if I shove and he folds I gain 3.5BB an awkward spot where I fold out the hand’s I want in the pot and keep all those in that trouble me.

Flop of 467 rainbow and initial raiser bets 9,000 and I call. Perhaps I should shove here but his near pot size bet looks like an over pair. King on the turn and the villain checks, I check back hoping to get to showdown. River is an 8 and villain shoves to put me all in, I call and he turns over set of eights.

Perhaps I should fold here because when you are only beating bluffs you’re not beating much…

I just played a $55 satellite for Caribbean and blew my stack on first hand.

Initial raise from cutoff of 600, a re-raise from button to 1,200, call from SB of 1,200, I make it 7,200 with AQ from the BB. The cut-off folds, button folds and the small blind calls. Flop all low small blind checks and I check.  King on turn, small blind checks and I shove. Villain calls with the hand I was representing AK and I’m out… just awful. I should have shoved flop if anything. How to blow  $55 in a minute and why am I cold 4 bet re-raising  AQ?

If you have a good stack don’t risk half of it calling all ins with AK. The the main value of AK lies in its fold equity, the value it has when called is a safety net only. I’ve just come 8th when 5 places won a $109 ticket, I called a shove of 45 K when I had a stack of 83K, blinds at 4K , and was facing KJ which was great. He he hit his Jack and next hand I was out running into QQ. There was no need, avoid variance especially in flat payout structure tournaments.

We all do it? Why do you think children jump into puddles and then cry when they get wet? Self-sabotage the enemy within…

I wake up at 5.30 after 5 hrs sleep and jump in the shower and dash off to Victoria coach station for the 8 am bus to Cardiff. I left in the sun and arrived in the rain, Welsh rain, I hadn’t pack a jacket. I made it to Cardiff Football Stadium for the Grand Prix $109 $250K GTD just after 12:15. 15 minutes late but it troubles me not being seated for the first hand of play as I’m a little OCD. I’ve never done well in a tournament I’ve entered late.

Opened first hand as soon as I’d sat down and faced a re-raise by the cut-off and then a cold 4 bet by the button. After an initial check by the cut-off the button raised and  got check-raised, he called. Action ended and the cutoff won showing down 99 against the button’s AK.

The level of play was awful with players thinking any ace was the nuts and calling all draws. Facing a min raise of 300 I bumped it to 1,200 from the button, the small blind called and initial raiser completed. Small blind checks, initial raiser checks a 4 5 J two clubs flop. I bet 1,200 and  the small blind check-raises to 2,850 and initial raiser also calls, I think about it and believe I’m either drawing very thin or facing a flush draw where I only have 60% equity and fold.

Ace comes on the turn and the hand is checked down. QQ for Small blind and king high flush on the river for the initial raiser. I would have had top set on the turn but I’m not sure I’d have been able to bet the woman off her flush draw, perhaps a lucky escape.

Absolutely card dead for long periods and every hand I played the action dictated that I fold.

Getting low I shoved 10BB from the hijack with QJo and was called by the small blind showing AJo. I get lucky and spike a Q for a double up, the very next hand I raise 62o and the button and BB both call. The BB checks the 6 8 10 flop two clubs, I shove bottom pair, the button tanks and folds, the BB tanks and calls showing 77. It’s 4:15 and I’ve busted my first entry on a table of fish. I had just got myself to half chip average and I  donked it off with 62o for no good reason, the shove isn’t awful but the open is dreadful. I should have checked it down and seen how the turn was played, no need to get it all in.

Time 4:15 pm, It’s time to play the tilt boy’s special upstairs for my second bullet.

I was card dead for an hour and then I a run good building my stack to 51K  when the average was 46K. Then I have a moment of supreme self-sabotage. Mid position opens for 3,500 blinds 600/1200 with 75 ante and I decide to defend with 95o. Why? Tell me why? flop comes 8 7 3 giving me a gut- shot straight draw. I check to the raiser and he bets 5,100 and I call, I’m not deep enough to call and have the 11-1 odds of hitting a 6.  The turn is a 3 I think of betting but decide against as realistically how may threes are in my range. The turn is checked through with a king hitting the river and I bet 10K with my 9 hig. The villain shoves and my cards can’t hit the muck fast enough, I just blew 17K or 30% of my stack by being a complete donkey “Set of sevens on the flop and full house on the turn…” he says as I hate myself…stop playing badly…it is not good poker…

Two hand later on the button facing a limp of 1,200  from UTG I raise to 4,500 with QQ. The initial raiser calls  and the flop comes A K J rainbow and I check it back. I thought about betting, however I am either way ahead or way behind and there is no need to turn my hand into a bluff. A 9 on turn and I face a bet of 5,100 which I call as I may still be ahead. Blank on river and the villain puts me all in, I tank then fold, he had J9 he told me later in McDonald’s.

A couple of hands later I shove 99 from UTG with a 14 BBs and get called by 10 10 on the button and board runs out without improving my holding it’s 9:33 it is all over. The next bus back to London is £10 at 2:40 am. and with trains a bust due to engineering works is my only opiton. No hotels in town fully booked something to do with monster trucks being in town. I drink a couple of beers and watch the action for a while, then sit in McDonald’s and drink tea. I get to the bus station to find it is a temporary affair in a park and wait the last 30 minutes outside in the cold exhausted.

I sleep all the way to London arriving at 6 am to find no tubes open until 7 am. I take a bus to parliament square, London is cool when there is no one around and I take the picture opposite of Big Ben.

I take the 53 bus for the final leg home and get to bed for 7:30 and sleep through till 1 pm. I feel broken, I’ve done marathons and felt fresher after.

£36 on buses, some train expenses, two $109 entries and 400 miles of road.

Woke 6.20 am jumped a shower and an Uber taxi to North Greenwich and from there by tube to Victoria coach station. A £5 Subway deal for the journey and a 3 hr National Express coach to Nottingham to play the £500 + £50 £250,000 guaranteed deep stack at Dusk Till Dawn first place £45 K + $8,000 PCA package.

Started well and hit some hands, called some limps with Aces and ended up 7 way but hit top set, led out for 1,500 and got two callers one who had initially checked on an A J 7 rainbow flop. Turn was a 9 putting some draws out and I bet 5,000 hoping someone had a set only to get two folds. I could have bet smaller but I was hoping to be able to build a pot for a river shove.

UTG + 2 raise to 400 SB calls and I complete with a pair of nines. Flop comes 974 two diamonds, SB checks and I donk lead out representing a draw for 1,000 initial raiser calls as does the small blind. Turn is a 3 putting some wheel draws out SB checks and I bet 3,000 initial raiser bets 12,000 SB folds and I set him in for about 25,000 which he calls off with a set of sevens, board runs out for a nearly full double up.

I have an under the gun raise to 4 x to 2,000 I re-raise with AA to 6,000 and initial raiser calls and shoves all in for 11,000 on a Q 8 4 flop I call and he shows J9 for a gut shot. Easy money.

Up to double chip average when I raise 3 x to 2,400 with KK on the button. BB re-raises to 5,200 I make it 12,000 and he ships for 21,000 total showing A o and spikes and aces on the flop for a full double up, that was when lady luck moved on…

I went card dead but kept patient, with 10 BB I shoved over a button min raise with A3 called by KJ after much thought and held for a double up. I then shoved over a mid-position raise of 7,000 with AJ for 35,000 10 BB from the hijack and got an all in from the button, the initial raiser folded and all in turned over QQ. I spiked an ace in the door and then runner runner spades gave him a queen high flush and sent me to the rail.

Bought into the £55 tournament and dusted half my stack off in the first hand with some dreadful play and was out an hour later. Booked a hotel at the Ramada for £59 and took a £27 bus back first thing in the morning.

Main lesson don’t get involved in fancy play, start with playing your hands correctly, extracting the maximum value from them and being aware of the GAP concept. Don’t call early raises with suited connectors unless you have 30 x the initial raise and even then there  are better situations.

I did discuss one hand with a guy who’d just busted. He min raised J 10 from the button into Martyn Frey’s BB who has a decent stack and likes to defend. Flop in J 10 7 two diamonds BB checks and he continues for 3/4 pot to get a call. Turn is a 7 and BB checks and then shoves over the raise. The guy called it off and did his 30 BB stack on the last level.

Last night played one $22 tournament playing well min raised from button with AK and SB shoved a decent stack, I called and his AQ hit a Queen on the flop. I was 70% good but play small ball when you have a skill edge remove the variance by avoiding these large decisions. I could have folded and lost 320 instead of getting 17,000 in good and busting. It should have been a simple task to win a $109 ticket with the stack I had.

Went to Aspers Casino and played a £20 tournament for 4 x  £220 888 tickets, I did £80 in re-buys and add-ons and went home after a losing a 10BB flip from the Small Blind with KQ v 99. I should have done a stop and go it was a good spot for it, but I hate shoving having missed to get called by someone who has spiked an ace. This was a clear spot for a stop and go and I should have taken that option as it had some additional fold equity which I left on the table.

I then did 3 x$22 playing for $109 ticket tournaments, in one I blew a top 5 stack on one hand with AQ with 9 players left , I should have folded the turn and thought of ICM implications. River was a an Ace, I checked and the villain shoved with a Full house Aces over Jacks exactly the hand I put him on when he bet the run. My trip Aces with Queen kicker were only a bluff catcher and should have gone in the muck.

Best decision I made was quitting for the night, I nearly used my £550 ticket to play the deep stack online day one rather than head to Nottingham this weekend, feeling low playing badly and hitting no cards. When you play badly there is no hope in poker and when you lose flips one after the other it’s demoralizing. That’s poker folks.

Bank roll £1,075 = £1,192 -$66 (3 x$22) yesterday and -$88 (4 x$22) and -$109 plus won 1 x $109 ticket

Played one $22 badly and then another when I hit top two on turn when the flush got there too, and after a check from villain I raised and was called. Then villain led the river for full pot and I called, just horrible! Check back the turn and bluff catch the river is the correct play or bet the turn and fold to the shove.

Played a $109 ticket for Caribbean blinds 400/800 raise RP to 2,000 and 4 callers I re-raise to 8,000 with AQs from the big blind and get folds but small blind calls flop comes 7 8 10 all diamonds. Check and I check back as I have no diamonds turn is a Queen, villain checks and I bet 8,000 and get a call. River is a blank villain checks and I ship in my remaining 9,500 Villain calls with the flopped straight made with 69o. Completely on tilt though my river bet would look like a busted flush draw bluff!!!