7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

Playing a $109 for 50 x $550 gtd 260 runners.

I’m in the big blind with Q2o  and comfortable in 3rd place no need to get busy, then I  get a raise from the button. I had 838K and he had 288K with the blinds 12K/24K and 2.5K antes, he raises 48K and my ego decides to play hardball and ship it. Aghhh… he has Aces, I get very lucky and turn trip Queens, sometimes it is your night, I move to top of the leader board with 1.1 Million.

I need to stay out of trouble and bank my $550 ticket as I’ll need it for the WPT, I always want to be 1st on the leader board, let’s leave the ego out if it today!

Off to Nottingham on Saturday should have two bullets for my shot at the $15oK first prize.

1.33 a.m. made it came 5th with 1.5 Million somehow Greeno99 got over the line with 11K when the blinds were 60/120K and antes 10K. It was fascinating watching the two super short stacks somehow make it home, can’t help but feel someone committed ICM suicide.

Reading “Life’s a Gamble” by Mike Sexton, he had 6% of PartyPoker back in the day  and sold it 18 months before they went public by selling 23% of the company for $1 Billion in 2005. Mike sold his shares for $15 Million, they would have been worth $260.8 Million had he hold’em until the float and $400.7 Million a month later.

He was very philosophical comparing it to folding 46 in a re-raised pot pre-flop. The dealer put out a flop of 235, folding was the best decision with the information available at the time and that is all that matters.

I watched The Million Dollar Deal a poker documentary following Andy Black, Mad Marty Wilson, Dave “Devil Fish” Ulliott and Mike Magee and their journey in the 1988 WSOP Main Event. Mike Magee made an ICM decision on the bubble that I’m sure will haunt him for a lifetime.

My reference to The Hendon Mob in the chat seemed to confuse the new PartyPoker Pro. Good luck to her it’s hard to make a living in poker and she’s finding a way. I hope to meet her on the felt one day…

i 

You only hit the flop 33% of the time

40%  C-Bet = 33/40 = 82.5% of time hitting the flop therefore people will fold

60% C-Bet = 33/60 = 55% of time hitting the flop therefore 45% of  time missing

75% C-Bet = 33/75 = 44% of time hitting the flop therefore 56% of time missing

>80%  you can be exploited if your

If turn C-Bet is 30-33% it means this is where he becomes honest as you hit the flop 33% of the time

<20% Never 3-Bet bluffs

<40% Generally has something

>60%  represents a 3-bet bluffer

10% of the time you have a premium

12.5% A few extra hands if you are getting 3-bet too much

15% You have some thin 4-bets in your range

20% You’re out of control

Fold to 3-Bet Perentages

<50% Calling too much

60% makes it hard to have a counter strategy

>65% is being to honest

What is a 3-Bet?

Pre-flop

1 Bet = Big Blind

2 Bet = Raise

3 Bet = Re-Raise (Second raise, going over the top of the first raiser)

4 Bet = Re-raise of a Re-raise (3-Bet)

Cold 4 Bet = When the 4-Bet comes for a player entering the pot normally a nutted hand

On Flop  we have the following

1 Bet = Raise

2 Bet = Re-Raise (Second raise, going over the top of the first raiser)

3  Bet= Re-raise of a Re-reraise

<6% only re-raising premium holdings

8%-9% Some bluff in there 1 in 4 times a medium hand

>10% Lot of bluff

>13% Hard to be +EV

ICM  = Independent Chip Model not all chips are equal

In poker, the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a mathematical model used to calculate a player’s overall equity in a tournament. The model uses stack sizes alone to determine how often a player will finish in each position (1st, 2nd, etc.). A player’s probability of finishing in each position is then multiplied by the prize amount for that position and those numbers are added together to determine the player’s overall equity.

ICM Factors to be aware of:

Size of your stack

1. Size of your opponents stack
2. Payout structure

Punish opponents by making your bets a potential ICM disaster should they go bust.