Month: November 2016 Page 1 of 3

Doug Polk – How much do Poker players make/have?

On 30/11/2016

Not many people make money in poker and if they do it is not as much as you think. Doug works you through the math, most lose, some break even and good players earn a reasonable amount if they don’t have leaks.

Doug estimates that only 15-20 people have netted over $10M from poker and managed to hold on to it. If you check out Erik Lindgren’s strory you can see that one can have $10,302,598 of cashes in tournaments and still end up bankrupt.

Mid-Stakes pro playing 2$-$5 Zoom who is a solid regular will win say 3BB per 100. This is a good win-rate and equals $150,000 if you play a million hands a year with rake back perhaps as much as $175-$200K. This equates to 3,000 hands a day which may be a little too high and Doug estimates that $130K as a more reasonable figure.

At high stakes $25-$50 can’t play a million hands as can’t get in enough games to enable him to hit those numbers.

The current best player is otB_RedBaron who Doug estimates is making maybe $1.5 – $2M a year.

To enter a $100,000 dollar tournament and have 100% of your action you would need at least a $5M-$6M bank roll. However a $10M or more bank roll would be more appropriate.

To have 40% of yourself in say the One Drop you would need $20M-$25M to be properly bank rolled.

Circuit players – A good one could expect to take home approx $300K-$400K a year.

Players on a winning roll who end up bank rolling themselves to a higher percentage of their action are the one’s that make the real money. Players such as Fedor Holz or Dan Coleman are the outliers who’s streaks led to riches. Other’s go broke trying to replicate their success by taking “shots” at tournaments their rolls can’t afford.

Doug Polk – Vanessa Selbst and Helmuth’s Tom Dwan prediction

By VinnyTheViper

On 30/11/2016

In Poker

This has Helmuth blowing up against Tom Dwan and the prophetic line “We”ll see if you’re even around in 5 years” ….Go Phil spot on…

PioSolver – Postflop equilibrium solver for Holdem – GTO

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

ThisPioSOLVER is a postflop equilibrium solver for Holdem which you can run on run-of-the-mill modern home PC. PioSOLVER solves full postflop games with arbitrary ranges and stacks. It gets to very decent solution in minutes (for flop spots) and in seconds (for turn/river spots). If you let it run few minutes longer you can get to practically perfect Nash Equilibrium.
PioSOLVER solves arbitrary trees including those with many bet sizes as long as they fit in RAM.PioSOLVER makes the whole tree available to browse. You can see exact strategy, EVs and ranges for every turn/river card and every betting sequence. Everything is easily accessible and possible to log which makes the results easy to verify and input into other tools.In short, PioSOLVER is the magical game theory box people were waiting for. In my view it gives more insight into the game than anything written or said before. If you want to know how very good approximation of optimal play looks like – that’s the product which gives it to you. Rest of 2+2 article here.

Tom Dwan Durrrr loses $30M Pot in Macau

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

This story was reported by Dan Cates as $20 Million pot in Macau, here Doug Polk gives his version of a $30 Million pot.

Patience is the game of Poker – Don’t get broken by long periods of folding…

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

Play correct hands in correct positions, know your starting hands and don’t deviate because you have been folding for a while. The key to the game is patience and embrace that quality, do not become emotional with each additional fold expect it and accept it. Learn to be Zen. Think of poker as a game of folding, fishing is called fishing rather than catching because you do not always catch a fish.

If you can learn to fold and not be affected by it you are close to mastery

Beware false tells – 888 Aspers

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

Terry Jordan joined my table briefly for the £220 888 and played nearly every hand raising and re-raising, I think the stakes were on the low side for him. I’d recently seen him win the 2,000 Euro turbo event in Killarney and he seemed in the mood for action. One hand particularly caught my attention, Terry had raised and the hand had gone three way, on the turn a second 3 arrived and Terry checked. There was an all-in, the next opponent tanked on the ace high board and I watched Terry look as if he couldn’t wait to muck his cards. He was getting ready to toss them over the line, moving them back and forth in a subtle but unmistakable motion. “That’s either terrible play or an angle shoot and Terry can play” I thought and sure enough as soon as the opponent folded Terry called the all-in showing K3 for trip 3’s. Beware the false tell, know your opponent.

Brian Hastings – Why I’m Moving On From Poker As A Full-time Job

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

Brian Hastings

Last week, I was flying home from Montreal after spending 4 nights there and playing a World Poker Tour event. The tournament ended up disappointing for me (bagged top 10 stack on Day 1, out 3 hours into day 2), but the trip was great. I loved getting to explore an amazing new city, especially since my favorite person was able to make it for 2 nights to explore with me. It did dawn on me that the highlights of my trip had nothing to do with poker itself (nor would they have even if I made a deep-but-not-first-place run). In that moment, I decided I was ready.

It was about 7 years ago that I first experienced the dark side of poker in a meaningful way. In December 2009, I beat Viktor Blom for $4.2 million in a single four-hour session of online $500/1000 HU PLO, the largest single-day win in the history of online poker. Six-tabling HU PLO does not leave much time for thinking or reflecting; it’s all about preparation and instincts. I was the better player on that day and lady luck was kind to me also. When the dust settled and I checked my Holdem Manager, I was on cloud nine. The euphoria of that moment has been replicated only a few other times in my life (although similarly happy and arguably more healthy feelings surface more often, mainly due to loving relationships I have). I grabbed a drink and tried to get my roommates and friends to join in the celebration, but it was finals week at Cornell and there were no celebrations to be had. I ended up just having a drink or two by myself, watched some late night TV, and called it a night.

The next morning, I was flooded with interview requests. Wow, people want to hear what 21-year-old me has to say! How cool! Of course I tried to accommodate as many as I could. Some of the interviews were easy enough. One, however, would be my introduction to the dark side.

As I noted above, preparation is key when playing 6 tables of HU poker, regardless of opponent. Viktor had a very unique style and had been playing anyone who would step up to the plate. I personally spent a bunch of time watching him play as well as reading the 2+2 High Stakes Thread in NVG for some hand analysis samples. A friend whom I studied poker with regularly took it a step further and purchased some of Viktor’s hands off a website, a practice that violated the T+C of Full Tilt Poker but was relatively common in those days and not established as taboo (you can find posts of several reputable players trying to do the same right out in the open).

I did an interview with Gary Wise for ESPN. 21-year-old Brian was humble by nature and felt kind of awkward doing an interview touting me, so I went into it thinking that I wanted to credit my friends for their help in preparation. Somehow that lead to socially awkward 21-year-old Brian uttering the phrase “conglomerated hand history databases” on tape in the interview (For the record – I don’t even know if that’s an actual thing that can be done. Mania and anxiety phrased that sentence for me.). I explained to Gary post-interview that the words were inaccurate and taken out of context. He replied that I said them on tape, so of course they were true. That was when I first learned that poker media probably doesn’t have my best interests at heart.

In the ensuing weeks, I received a lot of heat, albeit mostly from NVG-tards and failing players (most real pros had my back, FWIW). I remember being at an Indiana Jones show at Walt Disney World with my parents and frustratedly scrolling 2+2 watching my character be defamed. Eventually, FTP investigated, stripped my friend of red pro status for a month, and found that I did nothing wrong. Still, from time to time I would hear people label me a cheater. It ate at me some.

I got over it though. I spent the rest of college focusing mostly on my studies and relegated poker to 10-20 hour a week status, because I thought it would always be there after I graduated. Then, four months after I graduated, I was visiting my parents in PA. I tried to log into online poker sites, and got the DOJ screen of death. I saw everyone around me panicking, but I knew that would do no good. I tried to take a deep breath and calmly assess the situation. It wasn’t pretty.

I shifted my focus from online poker to live poker for the next few months, got 2nd in a HU tourney in Madrid to Andrew Lichtenberger, made a run or two at the WSOP (my first full WSOP), won some money playing nosebleed games in Bobby’s Room at Bellagio, then came back to my parents’ place in PA and tried to plan my next move. Moving abroad sounded kind of fun at first. I narrowed my search to Vancouver, Montreal, Playa del Carmen, Barcelona, maybe one more that I’m forgetting. I chose Vancouver due to quality of life, similarity to America, and the existing poker community there. I moved there for 3 months in September of 2011 to try it out. I did all the research by myself, and made a few rookie mistakes (building wasn’t great, not close to a grocery store, meh surrounding blocks). I went to 3 banks on morning 1 before one would finally let me open an account. After jumping through a few hoops, I finally got set up online again.

From a poker standpoint, Vancouver was great. I left for 3 weeks mid-trip to play EPT London and WSOP Europe in Cannes, but when I was in Vancouver playing online, I crushed it. 50/100 PLO games were great; I focused on those and banked $350k or so online during my 3 month stay. Something else was happening though. I felt really far away from home. I missed my friends and family (not hating on the good friends I made in Vancouver, much love). It started to be cold and rainy every day in November, and going outside was no longer fun. I was seeing a girl casually, and one day I called her and told her I had to stop, not because of her but because my depression made leaving my apartment unbearable. Prior to Thanksgiving, I booked a flight, took what felt like 3 or 4 hours to pack up all my stuff, and flew back to PA, swearing to never be an expat again.

After 3 or 4 months on my parents’ couch trying to convince myself that my brain wasn’t actually disintegrating, some friends suggested renting a place in Hallandale Beach, FL for a month. It seemed better than continuing to wallow in my own misery, so I did it. And I fell in love with South Florida. Part of that was a manic love because simply palatable was so much better than my status quo. I found fun, big live cash games to play in (games which I mostly get shut out of today). I played some live tournaments from $1k to $10k buyin and found out that they were actually pretty fun (I had barely played live MTTs at all pre-Black Friday. Less than 10 lifetime prior to BF). I met some people I liked, one of whom was a local realtor I met playing a $1k at Hard Rock. I decided that buying a $790k beachfront condo and putting 30% down due to the nature of my profession was expensive but justified because I wouldn’t go back to hopeless depression.

Less than two years later, I lied in bed in that very beachfront condo, hopelessly depressed. Life comes at you fast.

I saw my net worth plunge by something like 70% from 2012-2014 due to a combination of ill-advised (poker staking) and unlucky (DraftDay) investments as well as being hustled by my “friends”/peers in games I was new to like Super Stud 8/b and Open Face. I tried renting a place in Chicago and getting more hands-on with DraftDay, only to realize they had actual employees to do all that was necessary and I didn’t really have a role. I played on USA poker sites some, then read a book called Alligator Blood by James Leighton that explored the underworld of Daniel Tzvetkoff and black market payment processors. I withdrew my balances.

I befriended a poker pro who lived nearby. We bonded over common interests and talked poker a bunch. At one point, he said he could set me up with a PokerStars account that I could play on from Florida with no trace. I was depressed again and missing online poker dearly and feeling out of good options, so I took him up on it. It was the wrong thing to do, but I justified it by how wronged I felt by the entire industry. Mental health played a big role in my decision. When the sky fell, I quickly found out that this “friend” didn’t have my back at all (in fact, he would go on to double cross me in ways too repulsive to even post on a public blog). Nor did quite a few others whom I expected to. I didn’t respond to the attacks well, and lashed out back some. When the dust settled, I realized I had effectively turned into the person that I resent (if only for a short period of time).

I can remember seeing therapists 4 and 5 years ago taking career inventory tests and talking about how I needed to move on from poker to be happy. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the self-confidence to do it until now. Sonya, whom I met in August 2013 and started dating in December 2014, has been the best thing that’s ever happened to me. It’s been a long, sometimes painful journey, but with her help I have realized that yes, I am brilliant, and yes, I am capable of great things bigger than mastering a game and winning other people’s money. And while I love the game itself, I loathe the politics and a number of industry players.

The time is now for me to shift my focus to my new company – UniTea (@uniteafl on Twitter and Instagram). More details on that in a blog to come. I feel reborn and I can’t wait for this new journey. If you didn’t notice, UniTea is a pun on unity, something we are in dire need of these days.

-Brian

Know the difference between “trips” and a “set”

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

There is a vast difference in the way you play a poker hand when you flop a “set” versus when you flop “trips”. A set is having a pocket pair and getting a third on the flop. Trips is having one card in your hand, such as a seven, and getting two more on the flop.

Playing Flush draws – Ask yourself these questions – Controlled aggression is key

By VinnyTheViper

On 28/11/2016

In Poker

Flush draws are tricky, I committed ICM suicide in my last tournament with one… if I’d ask myself these questions I’d have flat called and been £410 richer as a minimum perhaps even £21K.

You have roughly 35% equity against a made hand but if you play aggressively you can with the fold equity you garner make them a +EV proposition.

Here are some questions you should ask yourself before deciding whether to raise or call on a flush draw. I you answer ‘yes’ to most of these be aggressive, otherwise just call. On an ace high board facing an initial raiser just flat, as you may be getting it all in with just 35% equity as no one folds aces.

Is it likely the villain has a weak hand?
Can you make the villain believe you have a strong hand?
Do you have a lot of fold equity?
Could I win the pot with less risk by calling?

Playing the bubble badly – Aspers 888 – Committing ICM Suicide

By VinnyTheViper

On 27/11/2016

In Poker

I busted in 66th place, 63rd place paid £410 with 21 K for first.

I came back for day 2 with 82 runners and 63 getting paid with an average stack. In the big blind with blinds 2,500/5,000/500 ante 12,000 I call a raise with to 12K from mid-position with 53o and hit a flop of 3 10 J two diamonds, I check initial raiser makes it 21K I re-raise to 45K and he puts me all in. I fold and he shows me 44, “Bluffing with the best hand” I tell him.

Next hand I pick up AQ and facing a mid position raise of 12K and a call of 12K from the button I ship 112K and get two folds, button had a small pair it seems.

I limp 910 clubs from button and get a call and a raise to 16K from BB which I call in position, a flop of J 9 6 gave me a 2nd pair. BB bets 19,500 and I call, turn is a 7 and BB checks. I raise 25K hoping to charge a flush draw and he calls, river is an 8 giving me the straight. BB checks and I bottle betting, backdoor flush got there and I was worried about Q10. I tank and just call and BB shows KK, I’m furious at myself for being so lame I have to value bet there, awful play but up to 212K.

I raise K6 13K and get re-raised by BB to 26K and I call in position, flop comes J 10 4 two diamonds and one heart. BB leads for 21K and I make it 60K to go and he puts me all in and shows me one Jack. This is poor play I should have folded pre-flop,I dusted off 85K with K6s, let the game come to you, stupid play.

Then the killer hand early position limp SB complete and I check in the BB with Q9 clubs. Flop comes A93 two clubs. I’d promised myself I wouldn’t go bust before the bubble and found myself with 2nd pair and a flush draw aghhhh…two days in a row. SB checks, I check and EP makes it 12K pot is now 32,500 and I jam 130K and get called by A7, turn is an ace and river a blank and I’m done. Villain had a stack to call and one club so I had 11 outs when called for approx 40%. I should have called the flop and re-valuated, not sure how I would have dealt with the ace on the turn when he would have no doubt bet. Upside I add 30K to my stack, downside I lose £410 ICM suicide. Near the bubble I could have just folded or taken the correct less risk approach of calling and then re-evaluating on the turn. Awful, awful, awful..

Villain below took my chips…will let you know where he finishes, pretty sure I did a similar thing to him in a previous tournament when he couldn’t believe I really had the goods. He was 2nd in chips before he took mine…Sorie Kamara came 9th for £2,1890, three players from my table made the final nine. Gladys Long came 5th for £5,435 and Ciprian Teaca 3rd for £9,795.

888-villain

20161125_172326 20161126_223938 20161127_142953