7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

Dreaming of the top whilst playing at the bottom…

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PLO – Sometimes it just isn’t your day $18,100 Pot

Scared Money Don’t Make Money

Pro poker players see missing value is the same as losing chips.

Negreanu – Winning $2.7 Million and still being a loser

Poker is a tough game to beat as Negreanu shows us here. Winning $2.7 Million in a year and still being a loser.

Cashing approx 22% of the time is a good ratio so don’t be too disheartened when you don’t. The key is to cash big when you do…interesting he hasn’t won in tournaments in the last two years.

Now the five year figures look great with a net profit of $8.7 Million but you have to realize $8.29 Million came in one event The One Drop of which he had 87% of his action so $7.212 Million. If we remove this result in the other 290 tournaments he’s made $443K in five years,  less than $85K a year less travel expenses…tough to beat the game. 

 

2013
Events 66
Cashes 13
ITM % 19.7
Buy ins $1,211,883
Payouts $3,203,423
Profit $1,963,500
Avg Buy In $18,363
Hourly Rate $3200

2014
Events 56
Cashes 13
ITM % 23.2
Buy ins $3,183,926
Payouts $10,284,090
Profit $7,100,164
Avg Buy In $56,855
Hourly Rate $14,045

2015
Events 49
Cashes 11
ITM % 22.4
Buy ins $1,513,125
Payouts $2,482,479
Profit $952,920
Avg Buy In $30,880
Hourly Rate $3388

2016
Events 49
Cashes 10
ITM % 20.4
Buy ins $1,546,355
Payouts $300,431
Profit (-$1,246,693)
Avg Buy In $31,558
Hourly Rate (-$3097)

2017
Events 71
Cashes 21
ITM % 29.6
Buy ins $2,874,164
Payouts $2,792,104
Profit (-$86,140)
Avg Buy In $40,481
Hourly Rate (-$144)

FIVE YEAR TOTAL

Events 291
Cashes 68
ITM % 23.4
Buy Ins $10,329,453
Payouts $19,062,527
Profit $8,733,074
Avg Buy In $35,496
Hourly Rate (Hours 2565) $3405

 

Vanessa Selbst Quits Poker

Vanessa Selbst quits poker and parts ways with PokerStars.

I saw a PokerGo documentary on her and she looked battered by the game a bit like ElKy.

She has cashed more than any other woman in history but I feel she’s realized she can’t beat the modern high stakes games. Highstakesdb article here, Card Player article here, her Hendonmob results here.

Only $8,231 won last year and $116K the year before, I guess with buy ins and travel she’ll have burnt through some dough. 2013 to 2015 were her best years.

Looking at Negreanu’s blog “winning” a couple of million may not make you a winner these days. In his recent blog he said “In the old days, before super high rollers, you could all but guarantee that cashing for $2 million would mean the player had a winning year. Well, the truth is, if a player plays the full high roller schedule and cashes for $2 million, they are all but certain to have had a losing year, and that’s before expenses”

I feel I’ll never get to beat the game, then again I’d never blow my money or my sponsor’s money 6 betting pocket fours or blowing $179K all in pre-flop 400BB deep with J7 suited.

Doug Polk’s video below may highlight some flaws in her game, it is hard to be hyper aggressive and not be spewy.

Set over Set – 1.02% of hurt

The odds of set over set are about 1.02% or 1 in 98 of two opponents flopping a set on the flop at any size table. For 100bb you’ll go bust that’s just poker so suck up your medicine and don’t feel bad…it’s all part of the game…

Poker don’t do Christmas

Poker is a brutal game it will show you new ways to lose and leave you lost.

Now the biggest crime at the poker table is to confuse bad luck with bad play, but sometimes you don’t know what side of the equation you are on.

So I hustled a $22 ticket into a $215 shot at a 10 x $1,500 Prague satellite which I lead all the  way before coming 11th.

So I called an all in versus KK with AQ for 15BB when I could have preserved my stack and got home, someone was all in and behind to hit a 3 outer on the river to steal my place as I busted next hand. It was a cruel bubble but I consoled myself that in reality it had saved me a grand on hotels and flights…

I played the $40 at Aspers and lost to runner runner straight I saw the flop saw I was 90% good and  tried to figure out how I could lose…

I have a new girlfriend who is dragging me off the felt and I must admit I don’t know what is better to be under a woman’s thumb or to be a losing poker player.

I’m giving up the game until I have a new job, losing money is no fun.

Poker has a long way to go before it replaces women but at other times it is the perfect remedy for them.

 

 

 

I Love Sammy Farha he was one of the best players to watch at the table

This is one of Sammy’s most famous hands, there is an excellent article on him here.

To be honest Sammy bottled it here! He just couldn’t pull the trigger for the other $185,000, Jamie had him worried and the commentary is spot on.

How you get $482,300 with a pair of nines with a Jack kicker is beyond me at nearly 500BB deep. I thought these days of poker were over but I may be wrong.

Sometimes you are just going to lose your whole stack

Joe Ingram takes you through the action you have to feel sorry for Matt Berkey…I think his river shove is good but perhaps I’m wrong.

And sometimes they have a hand that you just don’t even see in their range

 

EAPT Prague – I have a good feeling about this one…

I’m desperate to win the EAPT Prague for €115,000, I wouldn’t  do a deal for less than €100,000 and the trophy…or would I?

Step one complete, I busted a $5 satellite then I came first out of 30 runners in the $22 satellite. I was the sole qualifier with 645,000 chips or $645 virtual.

I am second in chips out of the 18 qualifiers so far for the Sunday 7 pm 10 x $1,500 packages gtd tournament.

I played really well then ost 2 flips 3 handed when chip lead in bavk to back hands. I fought my way back and won a flip with A 10 v 44 to take it down.

Min raise – Why is it always aces?

So I ran a pair of eights into aces with 4 left and lost half my stack, followed by shoving KQ over 3 limpers to be called but AK.

Of course I hit my Queen and lost to a rivered straight…poker sucks.

I want to qualify for Prague and take it down before Xmas. Today was 1 x $5 and 2 x $22 = $49 of nothing…enough for today…

 

 

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