7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

Dreaming of the top whilst playing at the bottom…

Loaded £50 and blew it in an hour

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This must have really hurt…

I’m ducking poker but still watching Jonathan Little, Doug Polk and other videos to keep my hand in. I came across this before bed and wondered how it must have felt for Mercier.

 

PCA Super High Roller

Spent the night watching the PCA, interesting commentary as players often did the opposite of the hand analysis offered by I believe Maria Ho

 

SplitSuit is one of my favourites

Bad Beat City – My new home

I guess I’ll end up like Neil Channing if this carries on.

Playing the £40 at Aspers on a Monday £1,500 gtd Hijack shoves 10BB with QQ and the Button calls off his big stack. I reshove 18BB with Aces to get called by the Button’s KQo.

So I’m 78% to win the Queens have 8.29% and the KQ 12.42% and I lose to both with 20 players left. I seem to be on a bad beat roll and am rapidly losing my appetite for the game.

PLO – Sometimes it just isn’t your day $18,100 Pot

Scared Money Don’t Make Money

Pro poker players see missing value is the same as losing chips.

Negreanu – Winning $2.7 Million and still being a loser

Poker is a tough game to beat as Negreanu shows us here. Winning $2.7 Million in a year and still being a loser.

Cashing approx 22% of the time is a good ratio so don’t be too disheartened when you don’t. The key is to cash big when you do…interesting he hasn’t won in tournaments in the last two years.

Now the five year figures look great with a net profit of $8.7 Million but you have to realize $8.29 Million came in one event The One Drop of which he had 87% of his action so $7.212 Million. If we remove this result in the other 290 tournaments he’s made $443K in five years,  less than $85K a year less travel expenses…tough to beat the game. 

 

2013
Events 66
Cashes 13
ITM % 19.7
Buy ins $1,211,883
Payouts $3,203,423
Profit $1,963,500
Avg Buy In $18,363
Hourly Rate $3200

2014
Events 56
Cashes 13
ITM % 23.2
Buy ins $3,183,926
Payouts $10,284,090
Profit $7,100,164
Avg Buy In $56,855
Hourly Rate $14,045

2015
Events 49
Cashes 11
ITM % 22.4
Buy ins $1,513,125
Payouts $2,482,479
Profit $952,920
Avg Buy In $30,880
Hourly Rate $3388

2016
Events 49
Cashes 10
ITM % 20.4
Buy ins $1,546,355
Payouts $300,431
Profit (-$1,246,693)
Avg Buy In $31,558
Hourly Rate (-$3097)

2017
Events 71
Cashes 21
ITM % 29.6
Buy ins $2,874,164
Payouts $2,792,104
Profit (-$86,140)
Avg Buy In $40,481
Hourly Rate (-$144)

FIVE YEAR TOTAL

Events 291
Cashes 68
ITM % 23.4
Buy Ins $10,329,453
Payouts $19,062,527
Profit $8,733,074
Avg Buy In $35,496
Hourly Rate (Hours 2565) $3405

 

Vanessa Selbst Quits Poker

Vanessa Selbst quits poker and parts ways with PokerStars.

I saw a PokerGo documentary on her and she looked battered by the game a bit like ElKy.

She has cashed more than any other woman in history but I feel she’s realized she can’t beat the modern high stakes games. Highstakesdb article here, Card Player article here, her Hendonmob results here.

Only $8,231 won last year and $116K the year before, I guess with buy ins and travel she’ll have burnt through some dough. 2013 to 2015 were her best years.

Looking at Negreanu’s blog “winning” a couple of million may not make you a winner these days. In his recent blog he said “In the old days, before super high rollers, you could all but guarantee that cashing for $2 million would mean the player had a winning year. Well, the truth is, if a player plays the full high roller schedule and cashes for $2 million, they are all but certain to have had a losing year, and that’s before expenses”

I feel I’ll never get to beat the game, then again I’d never blow my money or my sponsor’s money 6 betting pocket fours or blowing $179K all in pre-flop 400BB deep with J7 suited.

Doug Polk’s video below may highlight some flaws in her game, it is hard to be hyper aggressive and not be spewy.

Set over Set – 1.02% of hurt

The odds of set over set are about 1.02% or 1 in 98 of two opponents flopping a set on the flop at any size table. For 100bb you’ll go bust that’s just poker so suck up your medicine and don’t feel bad…it’s all part of the game…

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