7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

Dreaming of the top whilst playing at the bottom…

Month: November 2016 (Page 1 of 3)

Doug Polk – How much do Poker players make/have?

Not many people make money in poker and if they do it is not as much as you think. Doug works you through the math, most lose, some break even and good players earn a reasonable amount if they don’t have leaks.

Doug estimates  that only 15-20 people have netted over $10M from poker and managed to hold on to it. If you check out Erik Lindgren’s strory  you can see that one can have $10,302,598 of cashes in tournaments and still end up bankrupt.

Mid-Stakes pro playing 2$-$5 Zoom who is a solid regular will win  say 3BB per 100. This is a good win-rate and equals $150,000 if you play a million hands a year with rake back perhaps as much as $175-$200K.  This equates to 3,000 hands a day which may be a little too high and Doug estimates that $130K as a more reasonable figure.

At high stakes $25-$50 can’t play a million hands as can’t get in enough games to enable him to hit those numbers.

The current best player is otB_RedBaron who Doug estimates is making maybe $1.5 – $2M a year.

To enter a $100,000 dollar tournament and have 100% of your action you would need at least a $5M-$6M bank roll. However a $10M or more bank roll  would be more appropriate.

To have 40% of yourself in say the One Drop you would need $20M-$25M  to be properly bank rolled.

Circuit players  – A good one could expect to take home approx $300K-$400K  a year.

Players on a winning roll who end up bank rolling themselves to a higher percentage of their action are the one’s that make the real money. Players such as Fedor Holz or Dan Coleman are the outliers who’s streaks led to riches. Other’s go broke trying to replicate their success by taking “shots” at tournaments their rolls can’t afford.

Doug Polk – Vanessa Selbst and Helmuth’s Tom Dwan prediction

This has Helmuth blowing up against Tom Dwan and the prophetic line “We”ll see if you’re even around in 5 years” ….Go Phil spot on…

PioSolver – Postflop equilibrium solver for Holdem – GTO

Tom Dwan Durrrr loses $30M Pot in Macau

This story was reported by Dan Cates as $20 Million pot in Macau, here Doug Polk gives his version of a $30 Million pot.

Patience is the game of Poker – Don’t get broken by long periods of folding…

Play correct hands in correct positions, know your starting hands and don’t deviate because you have been folding for a while. The key to the game is patience and embrace that quality, do not become emotional with each additional fold expect it and accept it. Learn to be Zen. Think of poker as a game of folding, fishing is called fishing rather than catching because you do not always catch a fish.

If you can learn to fold and not be affected by it you are close to mastery

Beware false tells – 888 Aspers

Terry Jordan joined my table briefly  for the £220 888 and played nearly every hand raising and re-raising, I think the stakes were on the low side for him. I’d recently seen him win the 2,000 Euro turbo event in Killarney and he seemed in the mood for action.  One hand particularly caught my attention, Terry had raised and the hand had gone three way, on the turn a second 3 arrived and Terry checked. There was an all-in, the next opponent tanked on the ace high board and I watched Terry look as if he couldn’t wait to muck his cards. He was getting ready to toss them over the line, moving them back and forth in a subtle but unmistakable motion. “That’s either terrible play or an angle shoot and Terry can play” I thought and sure enough as soon as the opponent folded Terry called the all-in showing K3 for trip 3’s. Beware the false tell, know your opponent.

Brian Hastings – Why I’m Moving On From Poker As A Full-time Job

Brian Hastings

Know the difference between “trips” and a “set”

There is a vast difference in the way you play a poker hand when you flop a “setversus when you flop “trips”. A set is having a pocket pair and getting a third on the flop. Trips is having one card in your hand, such as a seven, and getting two more on the flop.

Playing Flush draws – Ask yourself these questions – Controlled aggression is key

Flush draws are tricky, I committed ICM suicide in my last tournament with one… if I’d ask myself these questions I’d have flat called and been £410 richer as a minimum perhaps even £21K.

You have roughly 35% equity against a made hand but if you play aggressively you can with the fold equity you garner make them a +EV proposition.

Here are some questions you should ask yourself before deciding whether to raise or call on a flush draw. I you answer ‘yes’ to most of these be aggressive, otherwise just call. On an ace high board facing an initial raiser just flat, as you may be getting it all in with just 35% equity as no one folds aces.

  • Is it likely the villain has a weak hand?
  • Can you make the villain believe you have a strong hand?
  • Do you have a lot of fold equity?
  • Could I win the pot with less risk by calling?

 

Playing the bubble badly – Aspers 888 – Committing ICM Suicide

I busted in 66th place, 63rd place paid £410 with 21 K for first.

I came back for day 2 with 82 runners and 63 getting paid with an average stack. In the big blind with blinds 2,500/5,000/500 ante 12,000 I call a raise with to 12K from mid-position with 53o and hit a flop of 3 10 J two diamonds, I check initial raiser makes it 21K I re-raise to 45K and he puts me all in. I fold and he shows me 44, “Bluffing with the best hand” I tell him.

Next hand I pick up AQ and facing a mid position raise of 12K and a call of 12K from the button I ship 112K and get two folds, button had a small pair it seems.

I limp 910 clubs from button and get a call and a raise to 16K from BB which I call in position, a flop of J 9 6 gave me a 2nd pair. BB  bets 19,500 and I call, turn is a 7 and BB checks. I raise 25K  hoping to charge a flush draw and he calls, river is an 8 giving me the straight. BB checks and I bottle betting, backdoor flush got there and I was worried about Q10. I tank and just call and BB shows KK, I’m furious at myself for being so lame I have to value bet there, awful play but up to 212K.

I raise K6 13K and get re-raised by BB to 26K and I call in position, flop comes J 10 4 two diamonds and one heart. BB leads for 21K and I make it 60K to go and he puts me all in and shows me one Jack. This is poor play I should have folded pre-flop,I dusted off 85K with K6s, let the game come to you, stupid play.

Then the killer hand early position limp SB complete and I check in the BB with Q9 clubs. Flop comes A93 two clubs. I’d promised myself I wouldn’t go bust before the bubble and found myself with 2nd pair and a flush draw aghhhh…two days in a row. SB checks, I check and EP makes it 12K pot is now 32,500 and I jam 130K and get called by A7, turn is an ace and river a blank and I’m done. Villain had a stack to call and one club so I had 11 outs when called for approx 40%. I should have called the flop and re-valuated, not sure how I would have dealt with the ace on the turn when he would have no doubt bet. Upside I add 30K to my stack, downside I lose £410 ICM suicide. Near the bubble I could have just folded or taken the correct less risk approach of calling and then re-evaluating on the turn. Awful, awful, awful..

Villain below took my chips…will let you know where he finishes, pretty sure I did a similar thing to him in a previous tournament when he couldn’t believe I really had the goods. He was 2nd in chips before he took mine…Sorie Kamara came 9th for £2,1890, three players from my table made the final nine. Gladys Long came 5th for £5,435 and Ciprian Teaca 3rd for £9,795.

888-villain

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