7 2 BLUFF...Diary of a poker player

Dreaming of the top whilst playing at the bottom…

Month: October 2016 (Page 1 of 4)

WPT 500 Update Will Kassouf – Speech Play and Slow Play

I met Will Kassouf at the WPT Nottingham and had a chance to get his thoughts on a hand that troubled me whilst watching the WSOP coverage. He faced an all in and a call and with King  Five and no pair or draw and tanked. When challenged he told the table he had a decision to make as he had top pair, before eventually folding. I told Will that I had defended him to my German poker friends but found that hand was impossible to defend  him on. He still maintained that timing tells were important even when folding, but I was left unconvinced. He did say something interesting that he seriously considered folding the Kings as he liked Shaun Deeb’s mantra that you have to make one big fold per tournament. I like Doug Polk’s analysis as always,

I played with an annoyingly slow player on day one and was pleased to find that the turbo event in the morning of day 2, gave you 20 seconds to act  or your hand was dead. If you needed more time you had one time bank chip which afforded you an extra minute.

This chip led to two interesting hands, the first was on the table next to me where on the river a player with a pair of deuces hit a deuce for a full house and shoved all in over a river bet. “I think I’m going to call…” his opponent said before throwing his time bank chip on to the felt . This was mistaken as a call and the full house player exposed his hand, only to find that he had thrown the time bank chip in. The time bank player realising he was beat folded amidst much commotion.

We discussed it on our table only for an hour later the same event to happen. The player on my left when checked to on the river bet half pot for 17K and once again the time bank chip went in only for him to show his turned flush before realising his error. His opponent folded having got the maximum value from this time-bank chip.

I believe getting your opponent to talk can get you information, I remember Antonio Esfandiari  getting Daniel Negreanu to betray his hand in a table talk master class.

I do believe Will’s speech play may betray him, this is an interesting article reviewing his speech play at the WSOP.

 

 

Task for today 3-Bet Seminar by Andrew “Balugawhale” Seidman

On YouTube watching a 3-Bet seminar from Andrew Seidman author of Easy Game and a coach at Deuces Cracked training site.

I’ve watched this video before but a long time ago, I need to review before the WPT to make sure I’m clear on my strategy and ranges. I enjoyed both his books Easy Game Volume 1 and Easy Game Volume 2. He now sells both on Amazon combined as an e-book Easy Game 3rd Edition but at £44 the price is pretty high, although what price good content? However as most good poker books come in at approx £25 I’d rather recommend Chris Moorman’s book or Alexander Fitzgerald’s.

 

Sometimes you get lucky, very lucky…sorry MagicMan11111

Playing a $109 for 50 x $550 gtd 260 runners.

I’m in the big blind with Q2o  and comfortable in 3rd place no need to get busy, then I  get a raise from the button. I had 838K and he had 288K with the blinds 12K/24K and 2.5K antes, he raises 48K and my ego decides to play hardball and ship it. Aghhh… he has Aces, I get very lucky and turn trip Queens, sometimes it is your night, I move to top of the leader board with 1.1 Million.

I need to stay out of trouble and bank my $550 ticket as I’ll need it for the WPT, I always want to be 1st on the leader board, let’s leave the ego out if it today!

Off to Nottingham on Saturday should have two bullets for my shot at the $15oK first prize.

1.33 a.m. made it came 5th with 1.5 Million somehow Greeno99 got over the line with 11K when the blinds were 60/120K and antes 10K. It was fascinating watching the two super short stacks somehow make it home, can’t help but feel someone committed ICM suicide.

luckboxlobby

Know when to holde’m – Life’s a Gamble

Reading “Life’s a Gamble” by Mike Sexton, he had 6% of PartyPoker back in the day  and sold it 18 months before they went public by selling 23% of the company for $1 Billion in 2005. Mike sold his shares for $15 Million, they would have been worth $260.8 Million had he hold’em until the float and $400.7 Million a month later.

He was very philosophical comparing it to folding 46 in a re-raised pot pre-flop. The dealer put out a flop of 235, folding was the best decision with the information available at the time and that is all that matters.

Watched The Million Dollar Deal

I watched The Million Dollar Deal a poker documentary following Andy Black, Mad Marty Wilson, Dave “Devil Fish” Ulliott and Mike Magee and their journey in the 1988 WSOP Main Event. Mike Magee made an ICM decision on the bubble that I’m sure will haunt him for a lifetime.

“Wild Hungarian” on Twitch – Interesting watch – Good luck to her

My reference to The Hendon Mob in the chat seemed to confuse the new PartyPoker Pro. Good luck to her it’s hard to make a living in poker and she’s finding a way. I hope to meet her on the felt one day…

wild-hungarian

Rule 55 – C-Betting %

You only hit the flop 33% of the time

40%  C-Bet = 33/40 = 82.5% of time hitting the flop therefore people will fold

60% C-Bet = 33/60 = 55% of time hitting the flop therefore 45% of  time missing

75% C-Bet = 33/75 = 44% of time hitting the flop therefore 56% of time missing

>80%  you can be exploited if your

If turn C-Bet is 30-33% it means this is where he becomes honest as you hit the flop 33% of the time

Rule 54 – Fold to 4-Bet %

<20% Never 3-Bet bluffs

<40% Generally has something

>60%  represents a 3-bet bluffer

 

 

Rule 53 – 4 Betting %

10% of the time you have a premium

12.5% A few extra hands if you are getting 3-bet too much

15% You have some thin 4-bets in your range

20% You’re out of control

Rule 52- Fold to 3-Bet %

Fold to 3-Bet Perentages

<50% Calling too much

60% makes it hard to have a counter strategy

>65% is being to honest

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